Working paper
The legacy of coercive cotton cultivation in colonial Mozambique

Henrique Barros, Rute Martins Caeiro, Sam Jones...

We examine the long-term impact of forced labour on individual risk behaviour and economic decisions. For that, we focus on a policy of coercive cotton cultivation enforced in colonial Mozambique between 1926 and 1961.

April 2024

Journal article
Firm profitability and forced wage labour in Portuguese Africa

Sam Jones

ARTICLE IS ON EARLY VIEW Forced wage labour (FWL) in colonial-era Portuguese Africa came to encompass a majority of working age men and persisted until the early 1960s. On the basis of reconstructed financial records...

March 2024

Working paper
Decomposing budget credibility

Ricardo Santos, Felix Mambo

Budget reliability is the first pillar of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA).In this study, we construct an expansion of the PEFA government response accuracy indicator and test its decomposition, with an application to the...

March 2024

Working paper
Sheepskin effects and heterogenous wage-setting behaviour

David A. Jaeger and Sam Jones

Using a unique panel survey of final-year undergraduates at six of the largest universities in Mozambique, we study the wage premium associated with completing an undergraduate degree. Conditional on a very rich set of controls...

January 2024

Working paper
Institutions and governance in Mozambique

Ines A. Ferreira

Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association...

January 2024

Journal article
Educational expansion and shifting private returns to education

Sam Jones, Thomas Pave Sohnesen and Neda Trifković

We examine how returns to education have evolved in the context of post-conflict reconstruction and economic growth in Mozambique over the period 1996–2015. We show that private rates of return to education have declined at...

August 2023

Journal article
Employment mismatches drive expectational errors among Mozambican graduates

Sam Jones, Ricardo Santos and Gimelgo Xirinda

Biased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex...

August 2023

Journal article
Evolution of multidimensional poverty in crisis-ridden Mozambique

Eva-Maria Egger, Vincenzo Salvucci and Finn Tarp

Mozambique experienced important reductions in the poverty rate until recently, before two major natural disasters hit, an armed insurgency stroke in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and the country started suffering from a hidden...

April 2023

Journal article
Africa’s lockdown dilemma

Eva-Maria Egger, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, Ivan...

As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, sub-Saharan African countries faced the dilemma of how to minimize viral transmission without adversely affecting the poor. This study proposes an index of lockdown readiness, taking into account housing conditions...

January 2023

Working paper
Social protection for Mozambique's elderly
This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria—programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on...

March 2025

Working paper
What explains the disaster preparedness of micro-enterprises?

Hanna Berkel and Finn Tarp

Worldwide, enterprises are hit by disasters such as cyclones and floods. Despite being impacted negatively, most enterprises do not prepare for future disasters. This study aims at understanding the determinants of enterprises’ disaster preparedness.

January 2024

Working paper
Structural change in the Mozambique economy between 2007 and 2019

Dirk van Seventer and Finn Tarp

This study makes use of Mozambican social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the years 2007 and 2019, which we compare to uncover structural changes. Our findings reflect the significant short- and long-term challenges that Mozambican policy...

September 2023

Report
Report
Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022

Giulia Barletta, Hanna Berkel, Sam Bryson, Peter...

This report documents the main findings of the Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022 (IIM 2022). The survey was implemented in 2022 under the Inclusive growth in Mozambique (IGM) programme with the support from the...

July 2023

Journal article
Employment mismatches drive expectational errors among Mozambican graduates

Sam Jones, Ricardo Santos and Gimelgo Xirinda

Biased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex...

July 2023