CEEG Seminar Series: Optimizing the political sustainability index: A comparative analysis of Mozambique, the USA and Sweden

On Wednesday, 19 March 2025, Flávio Quembo, Independent Scholar and Vice President of the Mozambican Association of Political Science, will present his working paper titled ‘Optimizing the political sustainability index: A comparative analysis of Mozambique, the USA and Sweden.’

The seminar is part of the CEEG Seminar Series, organized under the Inclusive growth in Mozambique (IGM) programme. The seminars offer a forum to share and discuss ongoing research on topics related to the work of the IGM programme and to foster a culture of research at the faculty and at UEM in general.

The seminars take place at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Eduardo Mondlane (UEM). They are public and open to all. The presentation is in Portuguese.

Register here

About the Study

This study introduces the Political Sustainability Index (PSI), an innovative framework designed to evaluate the resilience of political regimes in ensuring sustainability within State-Society Relations (SSR), with a particular focus on preventing political revolutions. Unlike conventional Democracy Indexes (DIs), which primarily assess Ideological Power (IP)—the extent to which minority or majority interests dominate along the authoritarian-democratic spectrum—the PSI incorporates Ecological Power (EP). EP reflects the influence of ecological priorities on SSR, offering a broader perspective for understanding political sustainability.

A key concept in the study is ecocracy, defined as a political regime guided by a scientifically informed parliament that prioritizes ecological balance, thus promoting long-term sustainability. The study argues that regimes primarily shaped by IP are more susceptible to political revolutions, as the struggles of marginalized ‘losers’ may lead to regime change. In contrast, regimes that incorporate EP tend to be more stable due to their focus on ecological and social sustainability.

Through a comparative analysis of Mozambique, the USA, and Sweden, the study examines the separation of powers in each country's constitutional amendments from their founding to 2024. It evaluates factors such as state impartiality in governance, the concentration of power in the executive branch, and the autonomy of local governments. The PSI for each country is classified on a scale from autocracy (0-33%) to flawed democracy (34-66%) to flawed & full ecocracy (67-100%).

The results show that Mozambique (27%) is classified as a hybrid regime, transitioning from one-party rule to a system favoring specific political parties. The USA (44%) is a flawed democracy, with economic interests heavily influencing policymaking, while Sweden (66%) is a full democracy with an emerging focus on ecological considerations driven by scientific knowledge.

Overall, the study identifies a growing recognition of EP, particularly after political revolutions, and its integration into constitutional amendments. By incorporating EP, the PSI provides a more nuanced alternative to traditional Democracy Indexes, advancing our understanding of political sustainability and the dynamic relationship between Ideological and Ecological Powers