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Inclusive growth in Mozambique – scaling-up research and capacity

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Findings from a new study on poverty and consumption featured in the national news

A UNU-WIDER Working Paper ‘Simulating the effect on households’ real consumption and poverty of the increase in prices that followed the 2015–16 economic crisis in Mozambique’, published in 2018, has been featured in one the leading national newspapers in Mozambique.

According to the working paper, although the poverty has declined substantially in Mozambique between 1996/97 and 2014/15, as the Fourth National Assessment on Poverty and Well-Being 2014/15 has shown, the recent economic crisis, characterized by a significant increase in domestic prices, may have dragged several households into poverty.

As the O País writes, 'Despite the rise in the poverty rate, the report published on the official website of the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Mozambique (MEF) states that the well-being levels of the Mozambican population are improving significantly, although challenges remain'.

The paper simulates the impact of rising prices on households’ actual consumption and the poverty rate at the national, urban–rural, and provincial levels, using various assumptions of the study. As a result, it estimates that the national poverty rate may have risen for 55–60 per cent of the population, from 46.1 per cent estimated in 2014/15.

The results this simulation provide important elements for a more complete assessment of the microeconomic impact of the 2015–16 crisis and for an analysis of households’ vulnerability to sudden price changes. They also inform policy makers about the possible microeconomic impacts of macroeconomic decisions that affect the confidence of international institutions and development partners in the state’s economy and institutions.

The Fourth National Assessment on Poverty and Well-Being 2014/15 was based on the 2014/15 Household Budget Survey (Iinquérito sobre Orçamento Familiar, IOF) which was conducted between August 2014 and August 2015. The next (fifth) National Assessment on Poverty and Well-Being is expected to be published in 2021.  It will be based on the IOF conducted in 2020 across the whole country by the National Institute for Statistics (INE).

Read the full report, Poverty and well-being in Mozambique: Fourth National Poverty Assessment (in Portuguese), or the Executive Summary (in English) and access Working Paper.

 

Links to the online news pieces

O País, 17 October 2019, Índice de pobreza disparou em Moçambique

Macua blogs, 17 October 2019, Índice de pobreza disparou em Moçambique

STV, Jornal da Noite, 17 October 2019, Pobreza em Moçambique: Ministério da Economia e Finanças Estima que mais da metade da população é pobre (1:08:07)